Ten false claims with rebuttals and evidence about the future of AI.
The Potential Impact of AI and Robotics on Human Labor
It is important to remember that, although we have been wrong in the past when predicting that new technologies would threaten jobs and throw our economic and social balance into chaos, this time could be different. Therefore, rather than solely relying on the historical pattern heuristic, we must also think critically about the evidence before us.
Rapid advancements in AI and robotics have led to solid inductive arguments supporting unprecedented change on the horizon, where new technology renders human labor irrelevant to an exponentially growing amount of tasks. Therefore, to prepare for what may lie ahead, we must take a systematic, rational-minded look at the potential impact of AI and robotics on human labor.
Historical Patterns and Heuristics: The Risk of Relying on the Past
Three billion people worldwide are employed; it is a plausible inference that new technology will significantly reduce this number. I provide evidence to support this belief in the following paragraphs. If the premise is compelling, we must conclude that AI and robotics may replace significant swaths of human labor, forcing our society and economy to devise new rules about producing and distributing goods and services.
However, this need not create a sense of doom and gloom. On the contrary, new conditions could lead to greater freedom and abundance for all and dramatically less suffering.
Evidence of the Potential Impact of AI and Robotics on Human Labor
At the end of this essay are ten numbered examples, each with a claim, a rebuttal, and evidence, that explore the potential impact of AI and robotics on human labor. The list strongly suggests how AI and robotics will perform many tasks with greater accuracy and speed than humans and even simulate human emotion and passion. After considering the evidence, you may conclude that AI and robotics will play an increasingly important role in our society and economy. Still, you may fall back on the "new jobs we couldn't have imagined will emerge" argument because "they always have." So let's address this straight away.
Yes, unforeseen jobs will emerge, but it is unlikely that only humans can fill these new tasks in perpetuity. While it is possible to re-skill the human body and mind to perform unforeseen and unimagined tasks, these new jobs will likely benefit from AI's accuracy, speed, and efficiency, far surpassing natural human limits. As such, new jobs will emerge, sustained for but a moment, and eventually give way to AI and robotics, which ultimately will surpass any laborer's ability to keep up.
Moore’s Law: Petaflops, Exaflops, Yottaflops, and Zettascale computing
In the past five years, the number of petaflops (one thousand trillion floating point operations per second) of computing power has increased from 0.5 to over 200 - 400x, an exponential rise that serves as a reminder of the incredible potential of current technology. Furthermore, the number of exaflops (one million trillion floating point operations per second) of computing power will increase from 200 to over 4,000 in the next ten years – a 20x increase. Therefore, computing power will increase by a factor of 10 every five years.
Yottaflops (one billion trillion floating point operations per second) of computing power will grow from 0.1 to over 100 in the same period, an incredible number, and serves as a reminder that the potential of technology is still just beginning. Furthermore, this increase in computing power will accelerate the development of new and more powerful AI algorithms. For example, by 2030, with new high-performance computing techniques, many experts predict we will transition to decentralized Zettascale systems that accurately model the whole human brain.
Overcoming the Fear of Change and Embracing a New Future
These numbers suggest that technology's potential should silence current provincial expectations that there will "always be new jobs" for the three billion who ostensibly want them. However, we must then ask ourselves: do we dare to let go of our current econ 101 reality? What happens to market competition, supply and demand, and the concept of merit and just rewards? What happens to status and dominance hierarchy?
Many people fear change and believe that status and competition are inseparable from what it means to be human. Therefore, they think those whose hard work, merit, and virtue lead to value creation should get their just rewards, and those who do not or cannot produce value, as defined by the market system, have no moral claim to any compensation.
It may be challenging for many to overcome entrenched feelings and ideals:
The fear of change.
A dogmatic belief in meritocracy and competition.
A conviction that finite resources and infinite wants necessitate perpetual competition.
Ten false claims with rebuttals and evidence about the future of AI.
Claim 1: Creative tasks such as writing and painting require a human touch that AI and robots cannot replicate.
Rebuttal: AI and robotics will be programmed and trained to generate creative works such as writing and paintings of higher quality than humans.
Evidence: AI algorithms have already produced innovative videos, music, literature, and artwork.
Claim 2: Human empathy and interpersonal skills are essential for customer service, counseling, and mentoring roles.
Rebuttal: AI and robotics will be programmed to interact with customers more efficiently and accurately than humans can.
Evidence: AI chatbots have provided customer service with greater accuracy and speed than humans.
Claim 3: Human intuition and experience are essential for strategic decision-making.
Rebuttal: AI and robotics will learn to analyze data and develop insights that they can use to make more accurate and strategic decisions than humans can.
Evidence: AI algorithms can process large amounts of data and identify patterns they can use to develop more informed decisions.
Claim 4: Human judgment is necessary for legal, ethical, and morally-consistent choices.
Rebuttal: AI and robotics will learn to assess legal, ethical, and moral situations and develop more precise and reliable solutions than human judgment.
Evidence: AI algorithms can identify and analyze legal documents, detect fraud and suspicious behaviors, and assess the risk associated with certain decisions.
Claim 5: Human touch and physical presence are crucial for many healthcare tasks.
Rebuttal: AI and robotics can assist healthcare professionals with specific tasks, such as automated diagnosis and treatment, that are more accurate and efficient than humans can provide.
Evidence: AI algorithms can diagnose diseases and recommend treatment options more accurately than human doctors.
Claim 6: We will always require manual human labor for construction and manufacturing tasks.
Rebuttal: AI and robotics will be capable of performing manual labor tasks with greater accuracy and speed than humans while also reducing the costs associated with labor.
Evidence: Automated robots can perform tasks such as welding and assembly with greater precision and speed than humans.
Claim 7: Human flexibility and adaptability are still necessary for many jobs.
Rebuttal: AI and robotics will eventually adapt to changing environments and tasks faster and more accurately than humans can.
Evidence: AI algorithms can quickly adapt to new data and settings, allowing them to respond rapidly to environmental changes.
Claim 8: Human presence is vital for many types of entertainment.
Rebuttal: AI and robotics will create more immersive and engaging entertainment experiences than humans can provide.
Evidence: AI algorithms can create interactive video games and virtual reality experiences with more engaging and immersive content than humans can.
Claim 9: Human social interaction is still necessary for many roles.
Rebuttal: AI and robotics will replicate communication and social interaction more efficiently and accurately than humans can.
Evidence: AI chatbots and virtual assistants have provided customer service and other interactions with greater accuracy and speed than humans.
Claim 10: Human emotion and passion are still essential for specific roles.
Rebuttal: AI and robotics will learn to simulate emotion and passion in specific roles more accurately than humans can.
Evidence: AI algorithms can generate realistic facial expressions, body language, and vocal inflections that they can use to replicate human emotions and passion.
CONCLUSION:
This essay may elicit strong negative reactions from those who believe status and competition are inseparable from humanity. They may be concerned about job security or oppose the idea of a "free ride" for billions. Others may continue to push the argument that new jobs will always lead to employment stasis, or be skeptical of AI and robotics, or worried about their ethical implications.
I want to take a moment to recognize and validate those feelings. It is natural to feel threatened when faced with potential changes that could drastically alter our lives, and it is important to be able to express those feelings. However, I hope that you will take the time to consider the potential of AI and robotics, and that you can open your mind to the possibility that things may turn out differently than expected.
The potential impact of AI and robotics on human labor seems clear: these technologies will complete most tasks faster and more accurately than humans, and they will likely be used in roles once thought to be unique to humans.
We must recognize this potential and be prepared to embrace it. We must think critically about the evidence in front of us and explore the possibility of an abundant and efficient future with advanced technology. Finally, we must recognize that, although we have been wrong in the past when predicting the impact of technology on employment, we can still be right this time.
The future of humanity depends on our ability to embrace this change and make the necessary preparations.
NEXT STEPS:
1. Create a social media campaign to raise awareness.
2. Connect with organizations and advocacy groups to amplify ideas and share resources.
3. Reach out to local community leaders and activists to discuss a human-positive vision.
4. Research and compile resources to educate and inform others.
5. Create a website or blog to provide a platform for further discussion.
6. Consider creating a petition or organizing a protest.
7. Host a virtual event or seminar to discuss potential impacts and encourage action.
8. Reach out to influencers, celebrities, and other public figures to increase visibility.